Reserve Bank of India (RBI) economists estimate that the GDP growth rate in the current financial year 2023-24 could be 8 per cent.
This is clear from the figures of the first quarter (April-June) of the financial year itself.
Although the total debt burden on the country is increasing, as this burden of the states has reached Rs 76 lakh crore.
The debt has increased by about 60 percent. The retail inflation rate is showing less than 8 percent, but due to increase in the prices of vegetables, pulses, milk, rice, flour etc, the inflation index had jumped up to 38 percent.
Now even Prime Minister Modi has expressed concern and has assured the country about continuous efforts to bring down inflation.
When the ‘National Statistics Office’ will release the figures of GDP and economic growth rate, then the reality of the development of the economy will be even more clear, but the way the activities of the core sector are visible, their demand and consumption continues to grow and there are signs of investment especially in infrastructure sectors, it is clear from them that the Indian economy can have the highest growth rate in the world.
The RBI study makes it clear that India’s economic momentum will remain steady and sustained, while the global economy slows down. India’s growth rate will be more than America, China and European countries.
These are really auspicious signs, but the rich people in the country are getting richer, the poor are turning into middle class, but the income of the poor is not increasing.
Is the growth rate of the economy only an indicator of the economic growth of the rich? Of course, the export turnover has shrunk by about 16 per cent in July and the prospects of this contraction remain persistent, yet private demand, private consumption and private investment have continued to grow.
These are encouraging signs for the economy, but as unemployment continues to rise, the demand, consumption and investment figures look questionable.
If the industrial class is also involved in private investment, then this growth rate cannot be called ‘national’.
It is being said that the figures of cargo and railway freight etc. at the ports have increased in July. While consumption of core sectors like steel, cement is showing healthy growth, sales of automobiles, with the exception of three-wheelers, it has been weak.
Non-oil imports have also been reduced as compared to last year. These indicators make it clear that there are weaknesses in the economy.
Can the growth rate touch a high of 8 per cent without these weaknesses and the role of the common man?
The average per capita income in India is around Rs 1.75 lakh annually. This is also the condition of the country that even today crores of people are unable to earn Rs 375 a day, so how can the gross growth rate reach 8 per cent?
It has also been revealed in the RBI report that the demand for work under MNREGA has come to the fore as compared to last year, so it is clear that even today there are people in the Indian population who do not have employment like MNREGA. They are demanding wages in MNREGA.
However, there is also a picture that out of 982 projects for which investment plans were prepared, about 60 per cent are in infrastructure sectors.
Most of the banks and financial institutions provide capital to these projects. Is this what is being called private investment?
Projects of energy, roads, bridges, special economic zones, industrial biotech and information technology parks etc. come in this area.
UP, Gujarat, Odisha, Maharashtra and Karnataka are the five states where more than 50 per cent of the investment is being made.
Although these economic activities and investments may be a good sign, the target is still far away.