El Niño Threat Raises Concerns Over Weak Monsoon and Drought in India
- By Thetripurapost Desk, New Delhi
- May 16, 2026
- 363
Fresh fears of a weak monsoon and severe drought are rising across India as weather agencies warn about the possible return of El Niño during the 2026 monsoon season.
According to the US weather agency NOAA, there is now an 82 percent chance of El Niño developing between May and July, sharply higher than last month’s forecast of 61 percent.
Scientists say Pacific Ocean temperatures are rising rapidly, increasing the possibility of prolonged dry weather, below-normal rainfall and dangerous heatwaves across India and several Asian countries.
How El Niño Impacts India’s Monsoon
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, disrupting global weather systems and rainfall patterns.
The phenomenon weakens the moisture-carrying monsoon winds that travel towards India, resulting in reduced rainfall, delayed monsoon activity and increased drought risks.
India Meteorological Department chief Mrityunjay Mahapatra warned that the developing El Niño conditions could directly affect India’s monsoon and intensify drought conditions in several states.
NOAA Forecast Raises Global Climate Concerns
The latest forecast from NOAA states there is a 96 percent chance that El Niño conditions may continue through the winter of 2026-27.
Experts also estimate a 67 percent probability of a “strong” or “very strong” El Niño event, which could trigger widespread heatwaves, water shortages and agricultural losses.
North and Central India Most Vulnerable
Several regions in North, West and Central India are expected to face the highest drought risk during the upcoming monsoon season.
States including Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan are likely to witness severe rainfall deficiency during August and September.
In Madhya Pradesh, areas such as Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Chambal, Jabalpur, Rewa, Shahdol, Sagar and Narmadapuram divisions are expected to receive below-average rainfall this year.
However, the impact may remain relatively lower in Ladakh, parts of Telangana and some northern regions of the country.
Southeast Asia and Australia Also at Risk
El Niño is expected to reduce rainfall across Southeast Asia, Indonesia and northern Australia, increasing the risk of severe drought and forest fires.
At the same time, warmer ocean temperatures in the central Pacific region could trigger powerful cyclones, intense storms and heavy rainfall in other parts of the world.
Climate Change Making Rainfall More Extreme
A recent study published in Nature revealed that climate change is altering global rainfall patterns dramatically.
Researchers found that rainfall is increasingly occurring in short, intense bursts separated by longer dry periods instead of being evenly spread throughout the year.
Scientists say this pattern prevents soil from absorbing enough water, causing rapid surface runoff and evaporation even during periods of heavy rainfall.
Rising Risk for Agriculture and Water Supply
Experts warn that a strong El Niño event could severely affect India’s agriculture sector, reservoir levels and drinking water supply.
Farmers in rain-dependent regions may face crop damage, lower yields and financial losses if monsoon rainfall remains below normal during the critical sowing season.