Global Oil Crisis Far From Over Despite Strait of Hormuz Reopening, 1.15 Billion Barrels Lost From Market
- By Thetripurapost Web Desk, Teheran
- Jun 20, 2026
- 136
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the recent Iran-US agreement has eased immediate concerns in global energy markets. However, industry experts warn that the global oil crisis is not over, as the world continues to deal with the consequences of one of the largest supply disruptions in recent years.
According to a report released by energy Market analytics firm Kpler, nearly 1.15 billion barrels of oil disappeared from global supply chains during the four-month conflict period. Analysts believe the effects of this disruption could continue to impact oil prices, fuel supplies, and energy security for several more months.
Strategic Oil Reserves Fall to Multi-Decade Lows
During the conflict, oil exports from several Middle Eastern producers were severely affected, forcing countries to rely heavily on strategic petroleum reserves and commercial stockpiles.
The report estimates that around 190 million barrels of oil were withdrawn from reserves during the crisis. Data also indicate that emergency reserves maintained by the International Energy Agency (IEA) have fallen to their lowest levels since 1990.
Meanwhile, the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to a 43-year low. Speaking at the G7 Summit, US President Donald Trump stated that continued disruptions could have exhausted available reserves within a matter of weeks.
Brent Crude Oil Prices Drop After Ceasefire
The announcement of the Iran-US agreement brought significant relief to global oil markets. Brent crude oil prices, which had surged to nearly $126 per barrel during the conflict, have now fallen below $80 per barrel.
Despite the sharp decline in crude oil prices, energy experts caution that the recovery remains fragile. The restoration of normal oil flows will require much more than reopening a critical shipping route.
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Not Enough to Restore Global Supply
Industry specialists say that several challenges remain before global oil supply chains can return to normal operations.
Sea lanes must first be cleared of wartime hazards, including naval mines and other obstacles. In addition, tanker fleets need to be repositioned, production levels increased, and transportation networks fully restored.
Analysts believe the normalization process could take several months, forcing many countries to continue relying on existing oil reserves.
Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets warned that markets may be underestimating the scale of the recovery challenge. According to her, substantial obstacles remain before oil supply levels return to pre-war conditions.
OPEC Production Increase Could Ease Supply Pressure
Some experts believe higher production from OPEC nations could help stabilize the market.
Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said financially pressured OPEC members are likely to increase crude oil output in the coming months. Additional production could improve global supply and help keep oil prices under control.
Vikas Dwivedi, Global Oil and Gas Strategist at Macquarie Group, noted that strong pre-war inventories prevented a major market shock despite the massive disruption in supplies.
He added that while diesel and gasoline inventories in the United States have declined, the situation remains manageable. Market dynamics may gradually improve as supply chains recover and production increases.
Replacing Lost Oil Supply Could Take Nearly One Year
Experts estimate that replenishing the 1.15 billion barrels lost during the conflict will be a lengthy process.
Even if global production exceeds demand by 5 million barrels per day, it could take close to a year to fully replace the lost supply. This highlights the scale of the disruption and the challenge facing the global energy sector.
Global Oil Production Tops 103 Million Barrels Daily
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), global crude oil production currently averages approximately 103 million barrels per day.
This equals nearly 3.09 billion barrels each month and around 37.6 billion barrels annually.
The United States remains the world's largest oil producer, contributing about 13 percent of global output. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, and Iraq follow as major producers.
Together, these five nations account for nearly 40 percent of worldwide oil production. As a result, any conflict, sanctions, production cuts, or supply disruptions involving these countries can significantly influence global crude oil prices, petrol prices, diesel prices, and overall energy markets.
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