Netanyahu Defeat Looms as Eisenkot Leads Israel Election Poll

By Thetripurapost Desk, Jerusalem
Aug 16, 2026
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing an increasingly competitive battle ahead of Israel's October 27 general ( Israel Election Polling) election, with former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party gaining significant momentum in recent opinion polls.

The latest polling trend has placed Eisenkot's Yashar among the leading political forces challenging Netanyahu's Likud. A Channel 12 survey published in July projected Yashar to win 24 seats, compared with 23 for Likud, highlighting the growing strength of Eisenkot's campaign.

Gadi Eisenkot Emerges as Major Netanyahu Challenger

Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff, has rapidly become one of the most prominent figures in Israel's opposition camp. His Yashar party has moved ahead of Likud in several recent surveys, although the size of the lead has differed between polling organisations.

Another July survey showed Yashar at 21 seats against 22 for Likud, demonstrating how closely the two parties are competing.

The latest polling developments suggest that Netanyahu's return to the premiership after the October 27 election is far from certain.

Netanyahu Still Has a Path to Forming Government

Winning the largest number of Knesset seats does not automatically guarantee the Israeli premiership.

Israel's parliament, the Knesset, has 120 members. A governing coalition needs sufficient parliamentary support, with 61 lawmakers representing the majority threshold.

This makes coalition negotiations crucial after the election. Even if Yashar becomes the largest party, Eisenkot would still need to assemble a coalition capable of commanding majority support in the Knesset.

Similarly, Netanyahu could remain prime minister if Likud and its political allies succeed in securing enough support to establish a governing coalition.

Israel Election 2026: Opposition Bloc Faces Coalition Challenge

Recent surveys have produced different projections for the competing political blocs.

A June Zman Yisrael poll, for example, gave the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc 62 seats, while Netanyahu-aligned parties were projected to win 50 seats. However, other polls have produced narrower margins and different seat distributions.

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A July Channel 13 survey projected a narrow 61-seat majority for the anti-Netanyahu bloc, while placing Yashar at 21 seats and Likud at 22.

These variations underline the uncertainty surrounding the 2026 Israeli election.

Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett Factor

The opposition's internal equation could also play an important role in determining who eventually leads the next government.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and opposition politician Yair Lapid remain important figures within the anti-Netanyahu camp. Eisenkot has argued that the leader of the largest party within an anti-Netanyahu coalition should become prime minister.

However, coalition arithmetic could ultimately prove more important than the performance of any single party.

Bennett's previous premiership demonstrated the importance of coalition-building. He became prime minister in 2021 despite his party holding only seven Knesset seats, after securing the support of a broad parliamentary coalition.

Security Concerns Surround Gadi Eisenkot

Eisenkot's increasing political prominence has also generated concerns regarding his personal security.

Reports have indicated that Israeli authorities are examining security arrangements for the former military chief as his political profile continues to rise. The issue has gained additional attention amid concerns about potential threats against senior Israeli political figures.

As the election campaign intensifies, security considerations could become an increasingly important issue surrounding Eisenkot's public appearances and political activities.

How Israel Elects Its Prime Minister

Unlike a presidential election, Israeli voters do not directly elect the prime minister.

Instead, Israelis vote for political parties competing for seats in the Knesset. The country operates as a single nationwide electoral constituency, with parliamentary representation determined through proportional voting. Israel's Basic Law states that Knesset elections are general, national, direct, equal, secret and proportional.

After the results are announced, political parties negotiate to establish a governing coalition.

The politician who succeeds in forming a government with sufficient parliamentary backing becomes prime minister. Therefore, the party finishing first in the election is not automatically guaranteed the premiership.

Why the Israel Election 2026 Matters

The October 27 election could reshape Israel's political landscape and determine whether Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power or whether Gadi Eisenkot and the opposition can build an alternative government.

With Yashar and Likud competing closely in recent polls, coalition mathematics, smaller parties and the distribution of seats across the political blocs could ultimately decide who becomes Israel's next prime minister.

The key question for Israel Election 2026 is no longer simply which party will finish first — it is whether Netanyahu or Eisenkot can assemble the 61-seat parliamentary support needed to govern.

This report has been updated using recent polling and official information on Israel's parliamentary system. Poll projections are subject to change before voting day.