Next UN Secretary-General: Candidates, Votes and Power Game

By Thetripurapost Desk, New York
Aug 22, 2026
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The race to choose the next United Nations Secretary-General is gathering momentum as António Guterres approaches the end of his second term. Guterres is scheduled to leave office on December 31, 2026, triggering one of the most consequential leadership contests in the international diplomatic system.

Eight candidates are now competing for the position. The UN Security Council's informal straw polls are providing the first indication of which contenders can build the support required to reach the final stage.

The latest voting round has made the contest considerably less predictable. Guyana's Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett has emerged as the latest front-runner, while Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan and Argentina's Rafael Mariano Grossi remain close behind.

How the UN Secretary-General is selected

The Secretary-General is not chosen through a direct worldwide election.

The process begins in the 15-member UN Security Council, which assesses the candidates before recommending one person to the General Assembly.

The Council consists of five permanent members — the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom — alongside 10 elected members.

A candidate ultimately needs at least nine votes in the Security Council. However, reaching nine votes is not sufficient if one of the five permanent members uses its veto.

After the Security Council agrees on a candidate, the recommendation goes to the 193-member UN General Assembly for appointment.

This gives the permanent five enormous influence over the outcome.

Second straw poll changes the picture

The informal voting process is particularly important because it allows Security Council members to signal their preferences before a formal decision.

In the first straw poll, held on July 30, 2026, Rebeca Grynspan was the strongest performer, receiving 10 votes indicating support.

The second round produced a significant change.

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett moved into first place with eight supportive votes, while Grynspan and Grossi each received seven.

No candidate has yet reached the nine-vote threshold, meaning there is currently no clear consensus within the Security Council.

The results also demonstrate why the early leader in a straw poll cannot automatically be regarded as the eventual winner.

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett emerges as a serious contender

Guyana's Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett has become one of the most closely watched candidates after her strong second-round performance.

A former foreign minister of Guyana, she currently serves as the country's ambassador to the United Nations. She entered politics at a young age and has extensive experience representing Guyana in international diplomacy.

Her campaign focuses heavily on restoring public confidence in the UN and strengthening the organisation's credibility.

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Her latest performance is particularly significant because she has now moved ahead of Grynspan.

However, eight supportive votes are still one short of the required nine. She must therefore expand her coalition while ensuring that none of the five permanent members becomes firmly opposed to her candidacy.

Rebeca Grynspan remains in contention

Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan remains a major contender despite losing the lead in the second informal vote.

Grynspan has held several prominent international positions. She previously served as Vice-President of Costa Rica and later became Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

Her extensive experience in international economic policy gives her a profile that could appeal to countries seeking a Secretary-General focused on development and multilateral cooperation.

Her first-round result showed that she can attract substantial Security Council support. The challenge now is to recover the votes lost between the first and second polls.

A Grynspan victory would also have historic importance because she would become the first woman to lead the United Nations as Secretary-General.

Rafael Grossi offers a security-focused alternative

Argentina's Rafael Mariano Grossi represents a very different type of candidacy.

As Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Grossi has been deeply involved in some of the world's most sensitive nuclear-security disputes.

His work involving Iran's nuclear programme and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine has placed him at the centre of major international crises.

Grossi argues that the UN needs to play a stronger role in addressing global conflicts and should adapt its institutions to contemporary challenges.

His seven supportive votes in the second straw poll place him firmly within the leading group.

His principal difficulty is that he also received significant opposition, meaning that he would need to broaden his appeal substantially to become the final consensus candidate.

Michelle Bachelet faces geopolitical challenges

Former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet brings extensive political and international experience to the contest.

She became Chile's first female president in 2006 and later served as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

Her human-rights record could strengthen her credentials for the post, but it has also generated diplomatic opposition.

During her tenure as UN human-rights chief, Bachelet raised concerns about the treatment of Uyghurs in China's Xinjiang region. She also criticised aspects of India's policies concerning Kashmir and citizenship.

Those positions have created potential obstacles in a selection process in which relations with the permanent members and other major powers are critical.

Her second-round performance indicates that she currently remains some distance behind the leading candidates.

María Fernanda Espinosa promotes UN reform

Ecuadorian diplomat María Fernanda Espinosa is another candidate with extensive UN experience.

She previously served as Ecuador's foreign minister and became President of the UN General Assembly, giving her an unusually strong understanding of the organisation's internal workings.

Espinosa has argued that the UN must remain the central international platform for addressing global challenges while undergoing meaningful institutional reform.

Her candidacy has attracted regional support but has not yet translated into enough Security Council momentum to put her among the leading contenders.

Her political career has also included controversy in Ecuador, including an unsuccessful parliamentary effort to remove her from office.

Macky Sall brings African leadership experience

Former Senegalese President Macky Sall is another significant name in the field.

Sall served as Senegal's president and has extensive experience dealing with African and international political issues. His campaign places particular emphasis on peace and development.

His candidacy also adds an important African dimension to the succession race.

However, his record as Senegal's president could become a political obstacle. His government faced major protests and political unrest during his time in office, with questions raised about the authorities' handling of the demonstrations.

Consequently, although Sall has considerable political experience, he must overcome concerns surrounding his domestic record.

Olara Otunnu seeks a reform-oriented role

Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu is campaigning on a platform centred on reform and institutional renewal.

Otunnu previously served in senior United Nations positions and has also held diplomatic responsibilities for Uganda.

His political experience includes a presidential campaign in Uganda, although he was unsuccessful against long-time incumbent Yoweri Museveni.

Otunnu's support increased in the second informal poll, suggesting that his candidacy has gained some traction.

Nevertheless, he remains well below the level of support required to become the Security Council's preferred candidate.

Ivonne A-Baki enters the race late

Ecuadorian diplomat and politician Ivonne A-Baki is the newest entrant in the contest.

Her nomination came after the first straw poll, meaning she did not participate in the July 30 vote.

A-Baki has represented Ecuador diplomatically in several countries and has experience in relations with both the United States and Gulf states.

Her relationship with former US President Donald Trump has attracted attention because of her previous diplomatic links and involvement with the Miss Universe pageant during Trump's ownership.

As a late entrant, however, she faces the difficult task of building support while the other candidates have already completed multiple rounds of campaigning.

Why the women's candidacies matter

One of the defining features of the 2026 succession race is the number of women competing.

The field includes Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Rebeca Grynspan, Michelle Bachelet, María Fernanda Espinosa and Ivonne A-Baki.

That means women constitute a majority of the current candidates.

The development is historically significant because the United Nations has never had a woman as Secretary-General.

The fact that Rodrigues-Birkett and Grynspan occupy the top two positions after the latest straw poll makes the possibility of a historic breakthrough particularly significant.

The permanent five hold the decisive cards

The biggest misunderstanding surrounding the race is that the candidate receiving the most votes in the straw poll will automatically become Secretary-General.

That is not how the system works.

A contender needs a broad coalition inside the Security Council and must avoid opposition from every permanent member.

This makes diplomatic acceptability just as important as numerical support.

For example, a candidate could theoretically collect nine supportive votes but still fail if a permanent member exercises its veto.

The eventual winner is therefore likely to be the person capable of balancing competing interests among the major powers.

What happens next?

Additional informal consultations and straw polls are expected as Security Council members attempt to narrow the field.

The candidates will need to demonstrate not only international credentials but also their ability to work across geopolitical divisions.

The contest could become increasingly strategic as governments assess which candidate can obtain the necessary nine votes without triggering a veto.

The formal appointment process is expected to conclude before Guterres' term expires on December 31, 2026.

UN Secretary-General election 2026: Current picture

At the present stage, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Rebeca Grynspan and Rafael Grossi appear to have the strongest momentum.

Rodrigues-Birkett has the advantage after the second straw poll. Grynspan remains close enough to recover the lead, while Grossi provides a potentially attractive alternative for countries seeking a candidate with extensive experience in international security.

The other candidates remain relevant because the field could change rapidly if the leading contenders fail to assemble the necessary coalition.

Bottom line

The race to replace António Guterres is still wide open.

The latest Security Council straw poll has transformed the contest from a seemingly Grynspan-led race into a much more competitive battle. Rodrigues-Birkett's rise demonstrates that support can shift quickly, while Grossi's continued presence keeps the possibility of a compromise candidate alive.

The decisive test will come when the Security Council moves from informal preference-testing toward a formal recommendation.

For now, the central question is not simply who has the most votes. It is who can secure at least nine Security Council votes while remaining acceptable to all five permanent members.

That equation will ultimately determine who becomes the next UN Secretary-General in 2027

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