Northeast Monsoon Rainfall Falls Over 40% Below Normal; Tripura Records 41% Deficit, IMD Flags Weak July Outlook
- By Thetripurapost Desk, Guwahati
- Jul 01, 2026
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Nearly the entire Northeast witnessed a disappointing start to the southwest monsoon, with rainfall remaining significantly below normal across seven of the region's eight states during June. The India Meteorological Department (mausam.imd) has attributed the weak monsoon performance to the absence of strong rain-bearing systems over the Bay of Bengal, an inactive monsoon trough and the growing influence of El Niño.
According to IMD data released on Wednesday, the Northeast as a whole received more than 40 percent less rainfall than the long-term average during June—the opening month of the southwest monsoon season. Despite episodes of heavy rain and flash floods in parts of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, the region ended the month with one of its sharpest rainfall deficits in recent years.
Tripura Records 41% Rainfall Deficit in June
Among the northeastern states, Tripura registered one of the most significant rainfall shortages.
Director of the IMD Agartala Meteorological Centre, Partha Roy, said the state received only 250.3 mm of rainfall during June, approximately 41 percent below the seasonal average.
Roy explained that the combined effect of El Niño and other unfavorable atmospheric conditions weakened monsoon activity across the Northeast. He also warned that the impact of El Niño is expected to intensify during the coming months.
The IMD has forecast below-normal to near-normal rainfall in Tripura during July, while both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal.
Only Sikkim Escapes Rainfall Deficit
Among all eight northeastern states, Sikkim was the lone exception.
The Himalayan state recorded 515.9 mm of rainfall against its normal average of 438.2 mm, making it the only state to receive above-normal precipitation during June.
Also Read: India Monsoon 2026 Update: Monsoon Stalls Over Telangana, 38% Rainfall Deficit Recorded Across Country
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The remaining states all reported varying degrees of rainfall deficiency:
- Meghalaya: 74% deficit
- Manipur: 71% deficit
- Nagaland: 56% deficit
- Arunachal Pradesh: 44% deficit
- Tripura: 41% deficit (IMD Agartala)
- Assam: 37% deficit
- Mizoram: 37% deficit
Meghalaya and Manipur fall under the IMD's 'Large Deficient' rainfall category.
IMD Predicts Below-Normal Rainfall Across India in July
The IMD has projected that India's average rainfall during July 2026 is likely to remain below 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Based on climatological data (moes) for 1971–2020, the country's average July rainfall stands at 280.4 mm.
While most regions are expected to witness below-normal rainfall, some pockets of Northeast India, northwest India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region could receive above-normal precipitation.
Agriculture Faces Fresh Challenges
Agricultural scientists have expressed concern over the weak onset of the monsoon, noting that July is the most critical month for Kharif sowing across the Northeast and much of India.
In Manipur, officials from the Agriculture Department said farming activities have been severely affected by the dual impact of prolonged ethnic unrest and unprecedented rainfall shortages.
Authorities, however, have put in place additional security arrangements and logistical support to ensure cultivation continues in both the Imphal Valley and hill districts during the Kharif season.
Delayed Monsoon Arrival Adds to Concerns
The southwest monsoon entered Northeast India on June 7, around two days later than its normal onset, before covering the entire region by June 10.
Weather experts believe a stronger El Niño episode could develop during the latter half of 2026, potentially triggering hotter temperatures and drier weather across large parts of Asia.
Despite the weak beginning, meteorologists remain cautiously optimistic that rainfall activity could improve during the peak monsoon months, helping reduce the seasonal deficit across the Northeast.
Why the Monsoon Matters
The southwest monsoon remains the lifeline of Northeast India's agriculture-driven economy. Timely rainfall is essential not only for successful Kharif cultivation, but also for replenishing rivers, reservoirs and groundwater reserves, supporting drinking water availability, hydropower generation and long-term water security across the region.
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