Blue-Print Must To Generate Employment

According to ILO-modelled rates, world average employment rate is 57%. India is placed by the same source at 47%. Pakistan and Sri Lanka are at 50% and 51% respectively and Bangladesh is at 57%. India needs a fix for low employment more than for its inflation problems. India’s often low unemployment rates mislead us as they mask the extremely low labour participation rate. What matters is the employment rate – the proportion of the working age population that is employed. We must ask ourselves how long should we wait for conservative fiscal and monetary policies to play out and stem the fall in the employment rate. India needs an acceptable employment rate level. A contained fiscal deficit and a contained inflation rate are pointless if they cannot help stem the fall in the employment rate even over a five year term. To fix the employment problem India needs policies to engineer a migration of labour from low-productivity farm jobs to better jobs in factories and in offices. India must increase employment in the government. According to data attributed to ILO, India is the worst performing country in terms of share of public sector workers as a per cent of total workforce. Only 3.8% of India’s total workforce is employed in the public sector. No other country is worse than India in this respect. USA and UK are 15.8% and 21.5%; Germany and France are 12.9% and 24.9%; South Korea and Japan are 10.3% and 10.5%. Singapore and China are 32% and 50% and Bangladesh is 8%. The justification for raising the share of government jobs is not to match to international standards but to provide adequate services which are woefully short. the government must lead the way in building physical and social infrastructure. This is also an area where India suffers a substantial deficit. The immediate impact of this would be an increase in employment in the construction industry. This is the best first step in moving labour out of farms. During 2004-05 through 2011-12 absolute number of workers fell in agriculture for the first time in India’s history primarily for this reason. Further, investment into social infrastructure is  necessary to enable an increase in government jobs. infrastructure development should concentrate on development of industrial clusters for labour intensive industries. Food processing, leather and footwear, wood manufacture/furniture, textiles and garments are industries that qualify easily. But, the effort should extend to creating manufacturing clusters to exploit the local advantage in every district or set of neighbouring districts. the Centre should correct the inverted duty structure (IDS) prevailing against Indian manufacturers. IDS constitutes negative protection  for India’s manufactures. A 2017 study showed IDS exists in paper and paper products, chemical and chemical products, pharmaceuticals, computers, electronic and optical products, machinery and transport equipment; another study showed IDS in electronic products like refrigerators, ACs, washing machines, microwave ovens. Performance-linked incentives (just awarded by GoI in 12 sectors in AtmaNirbhar Bharat 3.0) alone will not generate domestic manufacturing capacity.  it may be worth devising a mechanism to declare a project as a non-performing asset if it fails to provide the employment it promised to provide when it sought any benefit from the government. Promoters of such projects may be required to contribute to a jobs-creating fund in lieu of their default.

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