From Apna Dal To TIPRA Motha: Regional Parties Are Important For BJP For 2024 Roadmap

Before the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, where on one side all the opposition parties are preparing to challenge the BJP by forging an alliance with each other, on the other hand, from Apna Dal to Lok Janshakti Party, from National People’s Party to Tipra Motha, BJP wants to unite all the regional parties with it. But the question is why? 

According to the political analysts regional parties become very important for BJP especially for the 2024 General Election.

Even though in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had crossed the victory mark on its own. By winning 303 seats, the party has proved that it is capable of forming the government alone. 

But BJP would hardly have guessed what happened in the last 4 years. While on one hand BJP was forming government in different states, be it Gujarat or Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh or Haryana, on the other hand, in some states BJP’s friends i.e. coalition parties were leaving it.

Lok Janshakti Party in Bihar, Janata Dal United in love-hate relationship, Vijay Sardesai’s Goa Forward Party in Goa, DMDK in Tamil Nadu, Gorkha Janmukti Morcha in West Bengal demanding Gorkhaland, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party in Rajasthan and Shiromani Akali in Punjab.

These are the parties which left the BJP after 2019. These parties had a strong hold in the politics of their respective regions.

At the same time, apart from these, there are many parties which did not leave the support of BJP, but differences are seen within themselves. 

Like Shiv Sena. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Shiv Sena and BJP contested together and won 41 out of 48 seats. But we all saw what happened in Shiv Sena just a year ago. Now Shiv Sena has also divided into two parts.

The interesting thing here is that even after so many political upheavals, to form the government in this state, the BJP needed Shiv Sena from Maharashtra and both together formed the government there. 

And in the Lok Sabha elections also it is expected that both will contest together. 

After that comes the Lok Janshakti Party. LJP had also contested the elections together with BJP in the year 2019, but in 4 years, the whole math of the alliance got spoiled.

After the death of Ram Vilas Paswan, Chirag Paswan decided to break away from the NDA and contest the elections in 2020. Then there was a difference of opinion between uncle Pashupati Paras and Chirag Paswan in the party, then Pashupati Paras along with the MPs formed a separate faction of the party and supported the BJP. 

So there was no significant loss to the BJP directly from that. Although some experts believe that this was the plan of the BJP .

In the last 4 years, the biggest loss to BJP has happened especially from 3 parties. Those three parties are Shiromani Akali Dal, Janata Dal United and Shiv Sena. 

Now the question arises whether due to the separation of these three parties, will the BJP really lose seats in the coming Lok Sabha elections? But those who are aware of politics believe that these are the parties whose dominance in their state has reduced at present.

Talking about Punjab, Shiromani Akali Dal in the assembly elections held in the year 2022, we had seen how at one time the biggest party of Punjab was reduced to only 3 seats. The BJP will not get any special benefit or loss due to leaving SAD. 

The Captain’s party, which broke away from the Congress, has similarly joined hands with the BJP.

If we talk about Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, then 48 Lok Sabha seats are very high, but the interesting thing here is that the big faction of Shiv Sena is still with BJP. 

The BJP knows its importance, so the party does not want it to leave. BJP has won 23 seats in this state. There are a total of 48 seats here. Shiv Sena had won 18 in the last election. This time there is a special focus on 25 seats.

Because Uddhav Thackeray is also with Congress-NCP. In the recent CSDS survey, it has been said that there is a decrease in BJP’s seats in Maharashtra.

Experts believe that leaving JDU in Bihar will definitely harm BJP because in the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP + JDU + LJP got together and had won 39 out of 40 seats.

There was a clean sweep in Bihar, but this time it will be very difficult for the BJP to achieve this or even close to it. 

That’s why after the separation of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar from NDA, BJP lying alone has intensified the exercise towards increasing its clan. 

BJP is paying more attention to the small parties of Bihar. JDU got 16 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections. But this time due to separation from NDA, BJP may lose these 16 seats.

This is the reason why the party is turning to the regional party of the state. BJP can bring Upendra Kushwaha’s party Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal and LJP with it. 

The OBC voters of JDU who were about to go to the BJP’s side because of leaving the side of BJP, may not be complete, but they will definitely show trust on some of these parties. 

Upendra Kushwaha has influence in 13 to 14 districts and according to votes, Kushwaha has about 5 to 6 percent population in the state.

Paswan community comes in Dalit and it has about 4.2 percent stake in the state. In this way, the population of Manjhi community is also about 4 percent. 

Recently BJP Bihar President Sanjay Jaiswal also met Chirag Paswan. If seen in small parties, LGP has its own dominance. These are the parties which are not very big but have influence on the politics of the state and BJP is in talks with such parties.

Here an alliance of 7 parties including RJD and JDU is in front. In 2014, breaking away from JDU, BJP won 31 seats. The alliance had won 9 seats. By forming an alliance in Bihar, BJP is trying to register a strong presence in 10 seats. In 2019, BJP got 17 seats. Here the BJP has set a target of 25 plus.

Like Bihar, BJP wants to bring many regional parties along with it in Uttar Pradesh. Then whether it is the Nishad party which brings together the Nishad community or supporting our party focusing on the Kurmi vote bank. Or talking to Om Prakash Rajbhar of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party. If these small parties get together here, then BJP can get the benefit of about 10 seats.

This is the reason why BJP is constantly trying to bring smaller parties together. And this effort is not limited only to Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. – BJP was defeated on 16 seats in this state. Purvanchal has 10 seats in these. Rajbhar voters are considered very effective in these areas. 

That’s why BJP is trying to help Om Prakash Rajbhar. Haryana’s path is difficult for the BJP in the politics of Jat and non-Jat. This time the party will form an alliance with the Jannayak Janata Party before the elections.

Talking about the North East, the BJP also wants to forge an alliance with Tipra Motha, the most discussed party in the Tripura elections, because Tipra Motha’s hold in the tribal areas has become very good. 

The BJP already has an alliance with the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party in Nagaland and the National People’s Party in Meghalaya, due to which the BJP’s hold in that region has become very strong in terms of Lok Sabha.

If we talk about the South, then in Kerala BJP Bharat wants to maintain the support of BDJS, AIADMK, JRS, Kerala Congress (Nationalist), KKC, SJD. It is necessary to pay attention to the statement given by the Arch Bishop of Kerala regarding the BJP.

 The bishop has said that the believers in the church will help the Bharatiya Janata Party and elect its first MP from the state.

In Tamil Nadu, the BJP is trying its best to keep the AIADMK with it, although both the parties broke the alliance in the local body elections, but regarding 2024, both the parties say that they will fight together.

 Wherever there is a government without any coalition of BJP, there is more focus on BJP regional parties. South India is very important for BJP. Elections are to be held on 133 Lok Sabha seats in this region, on which it is very important for the BJP to win.

Except Karnataka, BJP is struggling in every state of South. And to find a solution to this, after 18 years, the party held a national executive meeting in Hyderabad, the capital of Telangana. 

In which special attention was paid to how the party should expand in the South. If the BJP has to spread its foot in the South, it will be very important that the Bharatiya Janata Party join hands with the regional parties of these states.

Many leaders of KCR’s party have also been seen praising the central government many times. BJP would like that they should get the support of all these small parties. 

Political pundits say that at this time the organized electoral machinery and aggressive campaigning style of the BJP has scared the regional parties to such an extent that they are trapped in a kind of political determinism regarding Indian democracy. 

This means that whoever contests the election, only BJP will win.

It is not possible to defeat the BJP which is working under the leadership of Narendra Modi and with the support of the Sangh Parivar. That’s why they have now started thinking that when it is not possible to confront BJP and it has to come to power, then why should alliance with Congress be maintained with it. 

The alternative vision of its regional identity and economic political thought should be kept in the same broad framework so that the central financial aid is given to their parties and governments and strict action is not taken on them through central agencies.

This political determinism is the most fatal thinking for the future of democracy and its vibrancy. 

This is a kind of defeatism and despair that pervades many of our regional parties and their leaders. 

It does not give them a chance to think in a new way nor does it give them the courage to walk on a new path. 

This thinking cannot save their regional forts for long and may force them to come under the umbrella of BJP.

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