If the price of grain rises in the Indian market, or if rice production falls, what is the impact on the global hunger map? The question is important at the moment, as India has already imposed various restrictions on rice and onions;
It is feared that sugar production will also be disrupted this year and restrictions will be imposed on its exports.
Among the agricultural commodities that India is a major exporter of, rice, onions and sugar are among them.
India is the number one exporter of rice in the world, accounting for 40 percent of the total market. India ranks second in terms of onion.
International rice prices rose naturally after India imposed a ban on exports of non-basmati white rice — the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s rice price index rose 2.8 percent in a month, the most in a decade.
The amount of rice that reaches the world market from India, If those exports suddenly stopped, it would be impossible for other rice-exporting countries like Vietnam, Thailand or Pakistan to cover the short-term deficit.
As a result, there is a shortage of supply in the market, the price of rice exported from other countries is also increasing.
Countries in Asia and sub-Sahara Africa are largely dependent on rice exports from India. This rice is a major component of daily nutrition in the region.
As a result, the disruption of exports from India is likely to have a negative impact on the nutrition of a large population in the world’s poorest regions.
There should be no doubt that the government will impose restrictions on exports if there is a shortage in the supply of food products in the country’s market.
It is also natural that the government will be desperate to prevent the increase in food prices in an election year.
The political ramifications of inflation are strong, and the issue is largely beyond the government’s control.
As a result, it is understood that the government will leave no chance to slow down the rate of inflation.
However, two questions remain. First of all, is the central government aware enough that the production crisis in agriculture is not a temporary problem? Is there enough research being done to adapt agriculture to climate change as a result of global warming?
Secondly, if the ban on exports is imposed, what will be the impact on the income of the farmers, is that taken into account amid voting calculations ?
The third question is the damage to the image of a reliable exporter if the export is suddenly stopped. Is there a strategy to recover it?
These questions did not arise when the ban on wheat exports was imposed, as India accounted for less than one percent of the total wheat exports to the world market.
But in the case of rice, it is important to have a good answer to the question.
However, Russia will bear the brunt of food shortages and rampant inflation in the world market.
The importance of Ukraine in the global food market is immense. After the start of the war, Russia began blocking cargo ships from Ukraine in the Black Sea.
Through the mediation of Turkiye and the United Nations, the transportation of goods was resumed.
Russia reimposed the blockade this July after a one-year deal expired. As a result, the supply of food products in the world market has been interrupted again, the prices have also gone up.
Prior to the onset of the Covid pandemic, international prices of primary food commodities had been sustainably low, thus showing a direction towards solving the problem of hunger. But for now that possibility ended in smoke.