The ‘Guarantee…’

On the line of opposition now PM Modi has also started serving ‘Electoral Guarantee’. Here he has given two special guarantees. The first guarantee has been given to the leaders-MPs of BJP and NDA that their victory is certain in 2024 as well and there is confidence of getting more than 50 per cent public vote. 

Even the opposition is making such claims that the destruction of the Modi government is certain. 

More or less such claims and guarantees will continue till the elections. Only mandate will verify the truth.

However, the Prime Minister’s second guarantee is that during his third term in power, India’s economy will be the third largest in the world. 

At present India is the 5th economy. Japan and Germany respectively they are in third-fourth place. The total credit for the country’s economy cannot be given to the Prime Minister or the rulers. 

There is a simple math that what is the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and economic growth rate. What is the gross value of the country’s goods and services. 

When Narendra Modi was elected the Prime Minister of the country in 2014, India’s GDP was 2039 billion US dollars and we were the 10th ranked economy.

 Since then the economic growth rate has been more than 5-6%, sometimes even touching 8% and the average economic growth of other so-called big countries is less, as a result India is in 5th place with GDP of 3737 billion dollars in 2023. 

That is, India is still not a country with a total economy of $ 4 trillion. 

Japan and Germany are economies of over $4 trillion. In fact, the country’s size, population, market, purchasing power, production etc. also play an important role in GDP. 

India is many times bigger and wider than Japan and Germany. America has a population of about 330 million, but it is an economy of more than 26 trillion dollars. 

China is the world’s most populous country, with an economy of over $19 trillion. When India will be the third largest economy in 2027 with $5153 billion, that is, more than $5 trillion, the US will be more than $31 trillion and China will be more than $25 trillion. 

The first and second place will be occupied and dominated by them. 

China’s economy is five times more than ours. There is no contest at the moment. May it be a pleasant and proud realization that in 2027, In the possible third term of Prime Minister Modi, India’s economy will be ahead and better than the economy of countries like Japan, Germany including Britain, France, Brazil, Canada, Italy and Russia. 

Actually the economy is a regular and continuous flow. There is not much interference or creditable role of power in it. 

There is constant interference of government policies in import and export. Nevertheless, it is natural to ask the question that why the Indian economy has been progressing ahead of the big countries and the so-called developed economies? 

During 2014-23, India’s GDP has increased by about 83 percent. China’s growth during the same period has been around 84 per cent. America has increased only by 54 percent. 

Except these three economies, the world’s largest 10 economies are shrinking. India’s GDP in 2027 will be about 38 percent more than 2023, while Japan, the same average for Germany would be around 15 per cent. 

The fact is that the pace of India’s economic growth has slowed down during 2014-23 as compared to 2004-14. During that period, when Dr. Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister of the country, the GDP grew by a total of 183 percent. 

Second, it is relatively easy to move from 10th to 5th place, as the difference in GDP between countries is a trillion dollars or less. 

Now there is a wide gap between the third and first two economies, so it will be challenging for India to move forward.

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