CFR Warns of Possible India-Pakistan War in 2026
- By Thetripurapost Desk, New Delhi
- Dec 30, 2025
- 515
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a leading US-based think tank, has cautioned that another military conflict between India and Pakistan could erupt in 2026, amid rising security risks in South Asia. The warning is contained in the CFR’s latest report, “Conflicts to Watch in 2026.”
According to the report, a surge in terrorist activity in Jammu and Kashmir could act as a trigger for renewed hostilities between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. The CFR notes that while no major terror attacks have occurred recently, intelligence inputs suggest that more than 30 Pakistan-based militants are currently active in the Jammu region during the winter months, raising serious security concerns.
The think tank warns that any escalation between India and Pakistan would have direct implications for US strategic interests, given the region’s geopolitical sensitivity and nuclear dimensions.
Following the India–Pakistan ceasefire on May 10, both countries have significantly accelerated their defence modernisation programmes. In India, the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has recently cleared defence procurement proposals worth ₹79,000 crore (approximately $1.7 billion), including advanced drones, air-to-air missiles and precision-guided munitions.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has initiated discussions with Turkey and China to acquire new drones and air defence systems, seeking to address vulnerabilities exposed during Operation Sindoor, according to the report.
The CFR has also flagged the possibility of a separate armed conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2026, though it notes that such a conflict would have relatively limited impact on US interests. Tensions between the two neighbours escalated sharply in October, when intense clashes erupted along the 2,600-kilometre Durand Line. Forces from both sides exchanged heavy fire in multiple sectors, with claims of destroyed border posts. The confrontations have since severely strained bilateral relations and cross-border trade.
The CFR report is based on a survey of US foreign policy experts and is intended to alert American policymakers to potential flashpoints around the world. It categorises global conflicts into Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3, reflecting both the likelihood of conflict and the severity of its consequences.
The report concludes that South Asia may once again emerge as a focal point of major geopolitical tension, with risks intensifying on both the India–Pakistan and Pakistan–Afghanistan fronts.
India and Pakistan have fought five wars since independence, all of which ended in Pakistan’s defeat. The most significant setback for Pakistan came during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, when East Pakistan became the independent nation of Bangladesh, and 91,000 Pakistani soldiers surrendered—one of the largest military capitulations since World War II.