India’s Fertility Falls to 1.9: Nation Below Replacement Level, Rural Hits 2.1 for First Time

• By Thetripurapost Desk, Delhi
• Sep 05, 2025
• 568

India has officially entered a demographic turning point. The country’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined further to 1.9 births per woman in 2023, from 2.0 in 2022, placing it well below the replacement level fertility of 2.1.

This unprecedented shift, revealed in the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, signals that the world’s most populous nation is now on course toward population stabilisation — and eventual ageing.

For the first time ever, rural India’s TFR touched 2.1, exactly at replacement level, while urban India dropped to 1.5, underscoring a widening rural–urban fertility divide. In 2022, rural women were still averaging 2.2 children, but that number has now aligned with the threshold where one generation replaces itself.

Stark contrasts across states

The national average masks sharp regional differences. Bihar remains India’s most fertile state at 2.8, followed by Uttar Pradesh (2.6), Madhya Pradesh (2.4), and Rajasthan (2.3) — all above replacement level, ensuring continued growth in the Hindi heartland.

By contrast, urbanised and southern states are recording historic lows: Delhi (1.2), Tamil Nadu and West Bengal (1.3 each), and Maharashtra (1.4). A cluster of states — including Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab, and Telangana — stand at 1.5, well below the threshold.

“This is a demographic divide — a tale of two Indias,” demographers warn. “One India is still growing, while the other is already shrinking.”

Gross Reproduction Rate points to future

The report estimates India’s Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) at 0.9, meaning each woman is now having roughly one daughter who survives to childbearing age. Rural GRR was slightly higher at 1.0, compared with 0.7 in urban India. Bihar once again leads with 1.3, while Delhi, Bengal, and Tamil Nadu bottom out at 0.6.

Mortality improves, but gaps persist

The fertility decline comes alongside a steady fall in infant and child deaths. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) dropped to 25 per 1,000 live births in 2023 from 26 in 2022, marking a seven-point decline over the past five years. Yet the gaps remain stark:

Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh reported the highest IMR at 37.

Kerala (5) and Manipur (3) stand at the lowest.
Even so, the grim reality persists — one in every 40 infants in India does not survive their first year of life.

Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) too edged down from 30 to 29, with a fall in female child mortality but stagnation among boys.

The big picture: ageing on the horizon

India, which touched replacement fertility nationally in 2019, is now firmly set on a path where population growth will slow and then reverse. Demographers caution that while this creates opportunities in terms of stabilising resources and improving living standards, it also poses looming challenges:

Ageing population and increased dependency ratios.

Labour shortages in the long run.

Uneven regional growth pressures, with north and central states continuing to expand, while the south and west face decline.

Experts say India now stands at a demographic crossroads — needing urgent investments in healthcare, education, and skilling, while preparing policies to handle an ageing society.

In short: With fertility at 1.9, India is no longer a “population explosion” story. It is becoming a story of population balancing — and the race to adapt before imbalance turns into crisis.