Iran Leadership Crisis After Khamenei Killing
- By Thetripurapost Desk, Teheran
- Mar 20, 2026
- 615
Over the past three weeks, a sustained wave of targeted Israeli strikes has severely disrupted Iran’s top leadership, triggering a critical question: who is truly governing Tehran as the conflict intensifies?
What began with the killing of Ali Khamenei has expanded into a broader decapitation of the political-security elite, including senior figure Ali Larijani and several high-ranking officials. The result is an unprecedented leadership vacuum at the apex of Iran’s power structure.
Supreme Leadership in Flux
Since the Iranian Revolution, the Supreme Leader has remained the ultimate authority in Iran’s political system.
Following Khamenei’s death, his 56-year-old son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has reportedly assumed the role. Long viewed as a potential successor despite lacking formal elected office, Mojtaba is believed to maintain deep ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
In theory, he now commands the armed forces and oversees strategic decisions, including Iran’s nuclear programme. However, his continued absence from public view—and unverified reports suggesting he may have been injured—have cast doubt on the stability and coherence of his leadership.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly questioned Tehran’s command structure, stating he was uncertain “who’s running Iran right now.” Similarly, former U.S. President Donald Trump remarked that Mojtaba’s status remains unclear, adding to the prevailing uncertainty.
IRGC: The Real Power Center?
Amid the ambiguity, many analysts argue that effective control may now rest with the IRGC, historically one of Iran’s most powerful institutions.
According to Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, the balance of power has shifted decisively: “The Revolutionary Guard is the state now.”
Established in the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, the IRGC operates parallel to Iran’s conventional military while exerting extensive influence over politics, security, and the economy. With the Supreme Leader gone and his successor’s authority uncertain, the Guard appears to have consolidated its dominance.
Further complicating matters, Iran’s command structure may no longer be fully centralized. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that some military units are functioning semi-independently, acting on pre-issued directives rather than direct oversight. This suggests a shift toward decentralized operations designed to maintain continuity amid leadership disruption.
Resilience Beneath the Turmoil
Despite the high-profile eliminations, experts caution against assuming imminent collapse.
Iran’s governance system, analysts argue, was deliberately designed with redundant layers of authority to withstand precisely such scenarios. Even if top-tier leaders are removed, secondary and tertiary leadership networks can step in to sustain state functions.
Vaez emphasized that expectations of rapid regime implosion are misguided, noting that Iran is not a fragile network but a structured state with institutional depth.
Meanwhile, Burcu Ozcelik of the Royal United Services Institute warned that the long-term consequences of these losses may unfold gradually. Rather than a sudden collapse, Iran may be entering a prolonged phase of internal transformation.
“The fixation on ‘regime collapse,’” she noted, “obscures the reality that the system is already evolving.”